paiN vs Phantom: Prediction, Odds & Stats

paiN (Brazil) face Phantom (Poland) in a best-of-3 at Stake Ranked Episode 3 on Wednesday, 15 July 2026. Over the last six months paiN have won 55% of their 42 matches against Phantom's 49% of 81. Recent form: paiN took 3 of their last 5, Phantom 4 of their last 5. The betting market makes paiN the favorite at 69% implied probability, while our model leans paiN.

Stake Ranked Episode 3BO3UPCOMING
paiN
paiN
Brazil
17:30
Wed 15 Jul · UTC
Watch on starladder
Phantom
Phantom
Poland

Prediction

paiN69%
31%Phantom

Market-implied probability from live odds (1.37 / 3.09, margin removed) — historically the most accurate public predictor. Favorites win ~82% of CS2 matches in our 2,131-match backtest.

CS2WH ModelpaiN 57%65.4% on 6,000-match holdout
Model vs MarketAgreeBoth lean paiN — when they agree, the favorite wins ~84% of the time.

Team Comparison

Last 180 days · 42 vs 81 matches
55%
Match win rate
49%
52%
Round win rate
50%
50%
T-side rounds
45%
54%
CT-side rounds
54%
49%
Pistol rounds
55%

Recent Form

paiN
LWWLW
Phantom
WWWLW

Head-to-Head

No recent head-to-head meetings.

Lineups

paiN logopaiN
BIbiguzera
VSvsm
PIpiriajr
RIrikz
SAsaffee
SNsnow
Phantom logoPhantom
LUlunAtic
TMTMB
KEKEi
KYKylar
NInicoodoz
MWmwlky

Bet on this match (18+)

CSGOEmpire odds are live and move until match start. Affiliate links — we may earn a commission. Gamble responsibly: resources.

FAQ

Who is favored to win paiN vs Phantom?

The betting market favors paiN with a 69% implied win probability (margin removed). The CS2WH model (65.4% holdout accuracy) picks paiN. No outcome is certain — underdogs win roughly one CS2 match in five.

When is paiN vs Phantom?

The best-of-3 match starts on Wednesday, 15 July 2026 at 17:30 UTC, part of Stake Ranked Episode 3.

Where can I bet on paiN vs Phantom?

Esports betting sites we have reviewed — including CSGOEmpire, 500 Casino and Duelbits — offer markets on this match. 18+ only; odds move until match start, and you should never stake more than you can afford to lose.

Predictions are informational analysis, not betting advice. Probabilities are market-implied (vig removed) · methodology & track record on the accuracy page.